Power outages may soon return to Ukraine: here's when and why.

This winter in Ukraine has passed almost without electricity outages, largely due to the mild weather. However, the situation may soon change, as a drop in temperatures is expected in February, and stabilization schedules for power outages may be reintroduced.

The chairman of the Ukrainian Renewable Energy Association, Stanislav Ignatiev, told "Telegraf" about this. He noted that the weather in the capital is currently so warm that spring plants have started to bloom in the middle of winter.

— Today, sakura has bloomed in Kyiv – the reason for this is the resumption of plant vegetation due to the warm winter with daytime temperatures reaching +8 degrees Celsius. But this is not a coincidence; it's a regularity of the processes observed on our planet. Over the past 30 years, winter has warmed by almost 1.5 degrees, and its duration has decreased by an average of one month. This is linked to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere. This weakens the activity of Antarctic air masses, which become warmer and slower, — says Ignatiev.

The interviewee emphasized that this is the month when warm and moderately humid cyclones come from the Atlantic, bringing warmth and fog to us in winter.

— Currently, such an air mass in Central Europe has mixed with hot dry air from the Sahara. This is why it is so warm in Ukraine now, and sakuras are blooming. Most importantly, we are saving electricity and do not have stabilization restrictions for consumers – "power outages," — adds Ignatiev.

He explained that an anticyclone with Arctic cold is forming over the Aleutian minimum (the coldest point on Earth), which is approaching Ukraine.

— Frosts of up to -16 degrees are forecasted from February 5. According to the meteorological radar Ventusky, the cold weather may last until February 10 across all of Ukraine. This means that the average daily temperatures will drop to -10 degrees Celsius, —

Low air temperatures, in turn, lead to a deficit in the energy system.

— Let me remind you that over the past three years it has been proven in Ukraine: when average temperatures drop to -5 degrees, a potential deficit arises in the energy system during peak hours (morning and evening) at a level of 2 GW hours. Currently, we can technically cover this deficit at a level of 2.1 GW hours, but only if this electricity is available from our European neighbors, — the interviewee explains.

Ignatiev emphasized that at average daily temperatures of -10 degrees, the deficit during peak hours could potentially reach up to 4 GW hours.

— Therefore, it is likely that this will force the dispatcher to implement morning and evening stabilization outages, — concluded the chairman of the Ukrainian Renewable Energy Association.

Recall that earlier "Telegraf" reported that the director of the energy research center Alexander Kharchenko explained under what conditions power outages may be reintroduced in Ukraine.