There won't be a rematch, but Boyko will secure five percent: Antipovich discusses mobilization, youth emigration, and "pro-Russian" Ukrainians, Part I.

In recent days, the news flow has been accelerating at lightning speed. A cold shower for Europe from the new U.S. administration, negotiations between Moscow and Washington taking increasingly clear shape, an emergency summit of European leaders on Ukraine – all of this is causing anxiety in an already weary nation. What sentiments do Ukrainians have as they approach this historical milestone in the war? What ideological factors could reboot the motivation for mobilization, and will men of conscription age leave the country as soon as the borders open? This was discussed in an interview with "Telegraph" by the head of the sociological group "Rating," Alexey Antipovich.

There Is No Recipe for Justice

– Alexey, from the latest "Rating" survey: "Ukrainians are becoming increasingly critical of the overall situation: about 49% of respondents believe that the country is moving in the wrong direction." I would also add KMIС and the Institute of Sociology data, which indicate that fewer people are willing to endure the war. What do all these numbers signify? Are we ready to make concessions to Russia?

– This is definitely not about concessions. Throughout the years of independence, Ukrainians have felt that we are heading in the wrong direction. In recent years, barely 20% have viewed the direction positively. Previously, it was about 12-14% who believed we were on the right path. At the beginning of the war, when all Ukrainians mobilized around their state, the direction was assessed as 70% correct. We are resisting, we are united, we are a single people fighting for our independence. However, after three years of war, such mobilization and unity are not as strong as they once were.

– Why?

– Because there is fatigue and uncertainty about the development of military actions. What future awaits us? We do not know. Consequently, our overall evaluations of the situation in the state are declining. Yes, about half of Ukrainians now say we are moving in the wrong direction, but a third believes we are moving in the right direction. Historically, 15% have always said we are heading in the right direction, even in times of absolute peace and under different presidents. There were spikes during the Orange Revolution, the Revolution of Dignity, and the electoral revolution when Zelensky won. These events raised assessments of positive developments in the state.

– There is currently much talk about the lack of justice in society. What does this mean? Who knows, but there is a demand for it. What do your surveys reveal? What kind of justice does society desire?

– Justice is a matter of definition, and everyone has their own. However, when analyzing society, it seems that justice should be discussed in two main areas. On one hand, there is what the war has brought us: suffering, destruction, loss of loved ones, homes, property, health, and injuries among the military... In this context, there is a search for justice: punishment of the guilty, punishment of Russia as the enemy, recognition of military merits.

But there is also a completely different aspect – economic justice. If corruption is the number one problem in the state, despite the war, then this also pertains to justice. Corruption has always been recognized by Ukrainians in surveys as the number one issue in our country. At the beginning of the war, corruption ceased to be the top concern, but today it is number one again. Why should an ordinary Ukrainian donate to the Armed Forces of Ukraine while some official embezzles budget funds that should go to the same Armed Forces?

The material condition of citizens, the economic crisis (whether it is worsening or, on the contrary, improving), and the fight against corruption are factors that can both divide us if things worsen and unite us if we see improvements in these areas.

A new factor that may divide Ukrainians is the different experiences of war. There’s also a theme of justice present here. Some have loved ones at the front, while others do not. There are wives whose husbands have died, and there are wives whose husbands have not even fought. Some have relocated from places like Mariupol, while others have not moved at all. Whether they lost their homes or not. This varied experience of war may be one of the future divides in Ukrainian society. It is already present but will grow and eventually divide us.

– Do people expect the government to suddenly make everything fair?

– Well, they really want to. Ukrainians, as always, believe in some hetman or miracle that will change everything. Corruption will disappear, the Armed Forces will be well-equipped, and most importantly – someone will fight in those Armed Forces, so they themselves won’t have to mobilize. In other words, there is a desire for everything to be resolved somehow. Somehow to end the war. Ukrainians are not ready to reflect on how exactly that should happen. There is a perception that we need victory, but if someone makes a decision, then we will look at that decision. In other words, they want someone to take responsibility. Because making Ukrainian society and the realities we live in just is something that no one can offer a recipe for. And it is impossible.

"Russia is an enemy for 100% of Ukrainians"

– In one of your interviews, you mentioned that when measuring sentiments in society, it almost always turns out that young people are our biggest pessimists. So, will the youth leave the country? Is that the right conclusion I am making?

– Yes and no. According to data, 38% of young people aged 18-29 are ready to change their place of residence and move to another settlement. Of these 38%, about 15% are willing to go abroad, 20% are ready to move to another region of Ukraine, and about 5% are willing to relocate within their region.

In total, about 7% of Ukrainians would like to move abroad in the near future. To leave Ukraine. But among the youth, this percentage is 15%. Young people are simply more mobile. On the other hand, they genuinely want a somewhat different life with fewer restrictions. And the war brings significant constraints. This is not just about curfews; it also includes internal morals: not celebrating, not singing songs, not going to clubs, not spending money on unnecessary things. Young people desire rest, entertainment, and the lightness of being. This is characteristic of youth. Can we blame them for this? Probably not.

As for the pessimism of the youth, it reflects the uncertainty that currently predominates in Ukrainian society. A young person believes they have their whole life ahead of them and that they will have time for everything: to study, to gain experiences, to travel, to buy one car, then another, to meet one girl, then another... In other words, that life process. At the same time, there is uncertainty due to three years of war. Ukrainians have stopped seeing where we are headed. And this uncertainty in war leads to uncertainty in all other areas. For the youth, this is effectively the removal of a horizon they want to see. And this is probably the most painful aspect for a young person.

Middle-aged people and the older generation have long adapted. They are rooted in their lives. They have children, property, jobs, and aging parents to care for. The older generation was born here, grew up here, and will die here, as they say. They will not leave, even from dangerous areas: Kharkiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia. Meanwhile, young people contemplate where to go to feel and see their prospects.

– According to the "Rating" survey, Ukrainians have the highest willingness to fight for their country compared to other European countries. The percentage of those ready to fight is 62%. In that case, why do we have mobilization issues? Or are those who answer "ready to fight" not actually going to fight? For example, the older generation, which is not affected by mobilization.

– You are absolutely right. If you ask women and pensioners if they are ready to fight, a large portion of them will say yes, but physically they definitely will not fight. Therefore, we need to talk not so much about a direct number but rather about comparisons with other European countries. And we do indeed have a high percentage. Although, because we are at war, we need to fight. This is not a theoretical question, but a practical one in the context of the war in Ukraine. Other Europeans surveyed respond more from a theoretical standpoint.

Regarding willingness to fight and mobilization... We asked how people assess the level of mobilization in Ukraine. Is it sufficient, insufficient, or just right? Opinions among Ukrainians are roughly evenly split, but the most interesting aspect is the age distribution of responses to this question. Over 40% of the youth (18-29 years) say there is too much mobilization. Meanwhile, more than 40% of the older generation (60 years and older) say there is not enough mobilization. In other words, those who definitely will not be mobilized say there