Recently, Ukrainian MP Maxim Tkachenko reported that a significant number of Ukrainians are returning to the temporarily occupied territories. This information was later denied. However, even mentioning it may indicate that such a problem exists.
To understand the scale of this issue, whether Ukrainians will continue to leave the country in 2024, and what to expect after the war ends, UNIAN asked Evgeny Golovakha, Doctor of Philosophy, Chief Researcher, and Director of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
Evgeny, recently MP Maxim Tkachenko stated that a large number of Ukrainians are returning to the temporarily occupied territories. Is this truly a widespread problem?
It's not accurate to call it a widespread problem. At least because it's quite challenging to measure, if not impossible. If people are returning to the temporarily occupied territories, they are doing so not through the frontline but via third countries. Therefore, there is no real statistic that could provide this information.
Indeed, some people are returning to the occupation. Has this percentage increased compared to 2022 or 2023? It's hard to say. However, Maxim Tkachenko's statement has already been refuted.
So, can this be considered a major trend?
I wouldn’t label it as a trend. While such cases occur, it’s expected. But to say that it's becoming a trend that has gained momentum this year is not accurate. It remains a hypothesis that is very difficult to verify.
Let’s discuss the broader issue of the outflow of Ukrainians. At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, there was a significant surge in emigration. Then, sociologists claim that people started returning to Ukraine more. What is the current situation, and does a certain psychological fatigue from the war influence this against the backdrop of challenging events on the front?
Undoubtedly, the psychological state of Ukrainians in 2024 is significantly worse than in 2022 or 2023. However, to say that this greatly influences the emigration of Ukrainians would be misleading.
Yes, there was a significant surge in Ukrainians leaving for abroad in 2022. Mainly, these were women with children trying to escape the war. It was a shock period, and the trend was natural. That phase has long passed, and the situation has stabilized.
People continue to leave the country. However, if we look at the broader picture rather than weekly statistics, the number of people leaving Ukraine is almost equal to the number of those returning. Thus, we can assert that the situation is currently stable.
What should we expect after the war? On one hand, the country will become safe, and Ukrainians will be able to return home. On the other hand, many men may leave the country once the borders open. What will be the trend in the post-war period?
The Institute of Demography has already developed several scenarios for events following the war. If Ukraine does not prepare for changes in demographic processes after the war, we risk losing a significant portion of the population, primarily due to the men you mentioned. Many of them will likely want to reunite with families that have already settled in Europe and other parts of the world.
However, there is a positive scenario as well. If we create conditions for the return of Ukrainians, the situation could be more favorable. We could expect a significant return of Ukrainians—up to 50%. This figure could be considered normal if all conditions for their adaptation to new living conditions in post-war Ukraine are met.
This program should include not only employment but also assistance in obtaining housing, education, and medical services. All these need to be prepared now. Then we could see a return rate of up to 50%. This would mean that the number of returnees would significantly exceed those leaving Ukraine.
Ukraine is far from the first country in modern history to experience a major war. How did the demographic situation develop in other countries after such wars?
We can take the end of the war in the Balkans as an example. After the war, up to 30% of the population returned home—mostly women with children. Ukraine could experience a similar situation if we do not prepare.
However, this depends on several factors, particularly how the war ends and, most importantly, when it ends. The longer the war lasts, the fewer Ukrainians will return home. We should consider the Balkan scenario to increase the number of Ukrainians returning home, especially if we had a population of at least 30 million.
We are already witnessing a significant problem in the labor market in Ukraine. Will it increase after the war? Or will Ukraine need to attract foreigners to fill the labor market with sufficient workforce?
Undoubtedly, the labor market situation will be challenging. If there is a significant shortage, additional conditions will need to be created to attract foreign workers. The most likely scenario points to countries in Southern and Eastern Asia, particularly the Philippines, Thailand, and similar locations. There is unlikely to be much potential in post-Soviet countries, as people traditionally seek work in Russia, and this trend is unlikely to change.
However, it is essential to understand that people from Asia will not come to work in Ukraine on their own. Necessary infrastructure must be established for this. Yes, these countries have high unemployment rates, but they need to create conditions that are characteristic of their region.
Even before the war, we observed a specific demographic problem—more people were dying in Ukraine than being born. Should we expect that this issue will resolve after the war? Or will it become more global instead?
Historically, after such large wars as the one in Ukraine, there are so-called "baby booms." However, Ukrainian demographers advise against relying on this, primarily due to the nature of the war.
Many factors affect the birth rate. But we must first focus on the factors that reduce it. This includes the level of medical services, combatting PTSD, stress conditions, and so on. The stress factor significantly impacts the birth rate, which is currently extremely high in Ukraine.
Currently, the most popular profession in Ukraine among students, especially postgraduates, is psychology. This is due to the societal need stemming from prolonged stress.
This is a complex issue—one that also involves the provision of medical services and the creation of new job opportunities. All these aspects need to be addressed now, as it will be too late after the war.