The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, may initiate negotiations regarding Ukraine at the beginning of next year. Within the circle of the re-elected U.S. President Donald Trump, there are individuals who might agree to Moscow's terms, especially if Russia severs its military ties with China. This was stated by Peter Pomerantsev, a senior researcher at the SNF Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University, in an article for The Guardian.
"In Moscow, there is no rush to finalize a deal. Putin feels he is winning on the battlefield… Russia's Soviet-era weapons will be depleted by the end of 2025; therefore, Putin might start negotiations early next year but will continue fighting until the very end, increasing attacks on civilians when the negotiations do not go his way," the author noted.
He also reminded that Russia has always demanded a "demilitarized Ukraine under the actual political control of the Kremlin," and Trump's circle is ready to agree to this, particularly on the condition that Putin ends military relations with China.
"But will Putin give up his strategic partnership with Xi for the unpredictable America? Even sacrificing contacts with Tehran could turn out to be a bad deal for Putin. However, he might see in Trump and his circle a version of his own kleptocracy," Pomerantsev added.
As Jack Watling from the Royal United Services Institute pointed out, Ukraine's sovereignty depends on whether it will be armed "to the teeth," at least over the next two years.
In this context, European countries may offer more than Trump thinks, the journalist writes.
"If the EU and the UK confiscate $300 billion of Russian state assets held in Euroclear, money that Putin has long written off, we can attract serious funding. Trump doesn’t need to spend more money on Ukraine - we can buy weapons. America could even profit from ensuring peace in Europe. Trump will be able to demonstrate how he made those 'parasitic' Europeans cough up money, proving his detractors wrong by rebooting America's most traditional alliances while putting 'America First'," emphasized Pomerantsev.
Putin Prepares for Negotiations - NYT
It should be noted that The New York Times reported that The Kremlin is already preparing for upcoming peace negotiations. It was pointed out that Moscow's strategy is to raise the stakes in order to negotiate them at the table.
It was indicated that the missile strikes exchanged between Russia and Ukraine this week were primarily aimed at political objectives and are unlikely to impact the overall situation in the war due to the relatively small number of missiles on both sides.