A massive asteroid hurtling toward Earth has alarmed scientists. What are the chances of a collision?

The asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27 by a telescope in Chile and has since garnered the attention of astronomers in the United States and Europe. According to researchers from the European Space Agency (ESA), astronomers have focused on follow-up observations since early January, utilizing telescopes around the globe, reports UPI.

Scientists note that they are using data to enhance our understanding of the asteroid's size and trajectory. Current estimates suggest that the asteroid is approximately 100 meters wide, with a potential collision with Earth expected to occur on December 22, 2032. However, the likelihood of such a collision is estimated at 1.3%. This represents one of the highest probabilities of an asteroid colliding with Earth in the history of monitoring space rocks.

Currently, the asteroid is moving away from Earth, but scientists plan to continue monitoring the massive space rock until it is no longer visible. It is anticipated that 2024 YR4 will reappear in telescopes only in 2028—at which point scientists will be able to provide a more accurate prediction regarding whether it could indeed collide with Earth, and if so, when that might happen.

According to planetary astronomer Colin Snodgrass from the University of Edinburgh, it is most likely that the enormous space rock will pass by our planet without causing any harm. At the same time, researchers point out that an asteroid of this size typically collides with Earth every few thousand years and could potentially cause significant damage to the region where it lands.

Despite the slim chances of a collision, the large asteroid still warrants a bit more attention from scientists using telescopes. At least until they can confirm that a collision will not occur. The longer researchers track the orbit of the space rock, the more accurate future predictions of its trajectory will become.