In the upcoming elections in Ukraine, a pro-Russian party could emerge victorious.

While the siren wails outside, it's a good time to contemplate the future in light of the recent elections in Georgia, Moldova, and Romania.

As we actively develop military scenarios for the end of the war, we must also consider an alternative scenario – an electoral "counter-revolution". This outcome is still not inevitable.

Since Putin is unlikely to fully annex Ukraine by the end of his current term, he may pivot to another strategy similar to the one he used with Bidzina Ivanishvili. It’s worth recalling that Ivanishvili entered power on a pro-European agenda. Even now, the "Georgian Dream" claims it aspires to join the EU, but… everyone is quite aware of the reality. In some villages, the price for a vote was 20 lari.

A similar scenario was expected in Moldova during the presidential elections. So far, it hasn't succeeded, although parliamentary elections are still ahead. The purchase of 300,000 votes (funneled through a Russian bank) could indeed have impacted the final outcome. They fell just short. They miscalculated. Sandu stood her ground, but, as they say, she scraped by on the bare minimum (I wouldn't be surprised if some of the funds from the "carousel" organizers were simply pocketed, which is why the expected outcome didn't materialize).

And now we have fresh results from Romania. The far-right politician Calin Georgescu came in first with 22.94% of the vote. This is a person whom sociologists had predicted would finish in 3rd or 4th place. An anti-vaxxer, a Putin admirer, and a Eurosceptic. He capitalized on TikTok technologies and, according to various sources, received informal financial support from Russia.

In the near future, we will have elections in Germany. Something tells me that Moscow will spare no effort to ensure that the "Alternative for Germany" garners as many votes as possible.

Now, let’s return to our situation. Can anyone guarantee that in the first post-war elections, we won't see some "Ukrainian Dream" emerge, which, while touting European integration, will bring a significant number of individuals into parliament who will later suggest striking a middle ground with Russia? Is there a guarantee that the Russian money funneled into a war-torn country won’t have the same effect as it did in Georgia or Moldova? By the way, if previously, various estimates indicated that a party needed around 600-800 thousand votes to enter parliament, after the war, it might only require 400. That’s not too burdensome for the Kremlin, is it? And the most interesting part is that neither now nor later will this be reflected in sociological data.

Ultimately, sociology was also wrong in the States. Researchers need to think about why people often lie in surveys and how to identify this "shortfall" percentage when compiling various ratings.

Therefore, looking ahead, we must understand that the war for security, the war for peace, and the war for the future after a (potential) cessation of the acute phase is just beginning.

P.S. I’ll go read something about targeting mechanisms in TikTok. I see it could come in handy.