How to make Putin respect a peace agreement with Ukraine: The Economist discusses possible strategies.

The new President of the United States, Donald Trump, aims to end the war in Ukraine, which has been ongoing for nearly three years, but he faces a couple of challenges. Firstly, Trump must compel the head of Russia, Vladimir Putin, to respect a peace agreement—or at least agree to it initially. Secondly, Trump will need to work to avoid going down in history as the person who "handed" Ukraine over to the Russians.

This is reported by The Economist. The authors of the article note that Trump is eagerly anticipating a ceasefire, but Putin demands too much in return. The Russian "president" insists on acknowledging the so-called "realities on the ground," meaning recognizing the occupation of at least four Ukrainian regions by Russia.

Moreover, Putin demands the lifting of Western sanctions, Ukraine's renunciation of NATO membership, disarmament and dissolution of the Ukrainian army, as well as "denazification" and "protection of the rights of Russian speakers." If Trump agrees to this, it could be said that Putin has achieved his objectives, Ukraine has suffered defeat, and Trump has catastrophically lost on the diplomatic front.

"Moreover, the President of Russia will not even respect a peace agreement. He will hope that post-war Ukraine, consumed by internal strife and accusations against the West, will fall into his hands. If that doesn't happen, he may seize even more territory by force," the publication notes.

However, the authors add that this scenario is far from inevitable, and in fact, it may not even be the most likely outcome. Such a capitulation would represent a public defeat for both Trump and the United States as a whole. The war may spill over into Asia, where aggressive China and North Korea exist, and American allies could lose faith in Washington and begin seeking favor with Beijing. Trump is unlikely to want the humiliating title of the person who lost Ukraine by "giving" it to Putin—after all, it is in his personal interest to forge an agreement that guarantees Ukraine at least four years of security while he is president. And in four years, Ukraine could achieve a lot.

"Trump has leverage over Russia if he chooses to use it. As he is unpredictable, he could threaten to side with Ukraine by sending her increasingly lethal weapons, and Putin would have to take him seriously," the authors conclude.

As previously reported, the Kremlin may offer Trump a division of Ukraine into three parts. The relevant document has already been prepared, but it is unclear whether it has been handed over to Washington.