The plan of the Russian corporation "Gazprom" for 2025 does not include gas transit to Europe through Ukraine.
Kremlin leader Putin has assured that Russia is ready to continue supplying gas through Ukraine; however, a source familiar with the gas giant's plans told Reuters a different story. According to him, the fundamental scenario for Moscow is the absence of transit through Ukraine after December 31.
It is expected that due to this, exports to "far abroad," which includes European countries and Turkey, will drop by one-fifth. This encompasses supplies through the "Turkish" and "Blue Stream" pipelines but does not include exports to China via the "Power of Siberia" pipeline, which could reach 38 billion cubic meters. Meanwhile, Gazprom believes that supplies to Turkey are unlikely to decrease.
Transit of Russian Gas through Ukraine
Recall that in 2019, "Naftogaz" and "Gazprom" signed an agreement on gas transit through Ukrainian territory. Its term expires at the end of this year. In Kyiv, it has been reported that they do not plan to discuss with Moscow the extension of the agreement or the approval of a new one.
Due to the full-scale invasion and the sabotage of the "Nord Stream" pipeline, Russia has lost almost all European customers. According to media reports, in 2023, it sent about 15 billion cubic meters through Ukraine, which accounts for only 8% of peak flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Experts say that due to the cessation of transit, Gazprom will lose about $6 billion in annual revenue, while Ukraine will lose between $800 million and $1.2 billion.