Can we manage without the Moon? Is Musk planning to bury NASA's most significant project?

American billionaire and close ally of the elected U.S. President Donald Trump, Elon Musk, has recently been very vocal in his criticisms of leaders from various countries, American politicians, and global affairs. Until now, space program agencies have largely managed to escape his scrutiny. However, his recent posts suggest that the ambitious NASA program "Artemis" to establish a permanent base on the Moon will not go unnoticed either.

Reports in American media indicated that Musk has expressed negative views about it in private conversations, but publicly he voiced his opinions only on December 25. According to him, "Artemis" is focused "on job creation, but not on achieving results."

"We are heading straight to Mars. The Moon is a distraction," he stated a few days later.

Musk explained that the key task in this regard is to launch a massive amount of resources into Earth’s orbit and then send them to Mars to build a self-sustaining colony there. Currently, humanity sends several thousand tons of cargo into orbit each year, but the billionaire claims this figure needs to be increased significantly — to one million tons per year.

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It is important to understand that Musk, as the owner of the private company SpaceX, is not directly linked to the government agency NASA and therefore cannot directly influence the development of American space programs. However, in Donald Trump's new cabinet, he could potentially be appointed as the head of the "Department of Government Efficiency", which is even named after the billionaire's favorite cryptocurrency, DOGE. Since this department is theoretically supposed to focus on reducing government spending, such statements should already serve as a "warning bell."

What is Artemis?

The United States remains the sole authority on successful human landings on the Moon. Between 1969 and 1972, they conducted six successful missions under the Apollo program; however, after that, progress stalled.

It’s worth noting that the renowned Apollo program was initiated during the height of the Cold War and, as a result, became heavily politicized. However, following its successes and the Soviet Union’s failures with the N-1 rocket, the hysteria surrounding the space race somewhat diminished. NASA shifted its focus to less risky and, most importantly, more cost-effective missions, while the achievements of the 1970s became surrounded by numerous myths, conspiracy theories, and speculations.

A renewed wave of interest in this topic emerged during Donald Trump's previous term, when he (yes, him) promised to return Americans to the Moon. This was largely driven by the successes of Musk's SpaceX, which managed to launch its own Crew Dragon spacecraft into space using its reusable Falcon 9 rocket and transport people to the International Space Station, thus eliminating the need for the U.S. to rely on "Roscosmos."

This inspired Americans to launch the "Artemis" program, named after the goddess of hunting and sister of the sun god Apollo in ancient Greek mythology.

The program includes the development of the "Orion" spacecraft, which is launched into space by the heavy-lift SLS rocket, designed to replace the legendary Saturn V rocket that sent people to the Moon in the 1960s and 70s. The mission also involves work on the HLS landing system and the Gateway orbital station. The ultimate goal of "Artemis" is to establish a permanent habitable base on our planet's satellite, which is expected to serve as a stepping stone for the colonization of Mars.

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The mission has attracted the attention of many other countries that have joined the so-called "Artemis Accords," which regulate the principles of peaceful space exploration. As of December 2024, the list included 52 countries, including Ukraine.

In 2022, NASA successfully completed the first phase of the program, which involved launching "Orion" to the Moon and returning it home. Initially, the mission was intended to include live astronauts, but the agency later changed its mind, and the first flight took place without anyone on board.

However, the loud successes ended there. After "Orion" returned to Earth, some problems were discovered with the thermal protection system and the batteries. Work on the HLS landing module, which is being developed by SpaceX, has been complicated by issues with refueling systems. There are also questions regarding the crew's operations on the lunar surface. All of this ultimately led to the postponement of plans for the second phase of the mission, which included a crewed lunar flyby, to 2026, and the landing of humans on the surface is now not expected to occur before 2027.

It is important to note that in NASA's original plans, the first astronauts were supposed to be actively treading the lunar regolith by the end of 2024.

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What does Musk have to do with it?

In April 2023, SpaceX achieved a significant breakthrough, turning what seemed like science fiction from about a decade ago into reality, albeit with an explosive ending. This refers to the company's creation called Starship — the heaviest and largest rocket ever launched by humans.

By October 2024, Starship not only launched but also successfully landed in the waters of the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, the Mechazilla manipulator was able to successfully catch the first stage (which is reusable — another innovative feature of SpaceX) of the Super Heavy rocket.

Although Starship cannot yet be fully considered a reliable technology, it is already clear that SpaceX is progressing much faster than NASA in this regard.

It is worth mentioning that the American aerospace agency is already dependent on Musk's Falcon 9 rockets, and transitioning the lunar mission from the "outdated" SLS rockets to the shiny new Starship could potentially bring SpaceX additional tens of billions of dollars.

To put it into perspective, the cost of "Artemis" is estimated at $93 billion, and this is without additional programs. A potential Mars mission could be exponentially more expensive.

Additionally, Musk himself aims to launch a test mission to Mars as early as 2026, with plans to send the first humans there by 2028. If he succeeds, the achievements of "Artemis" will indeed seem quite modest in comparison.

The billionaire also intends to establish regular flights within a tight timeline, aiming to build a fully autonomous city with a population of one million on the red planet by 2050.

At this stage, it is difficult to predict what will happen with NASA's lunar initiative, as its implementation has already progressed too far, and there are currently no signs that anyone will consider terminating it. However, given Musk's increased role in American domestic politics, it cannot be ruled out that its future may not be as bright as it seems.

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