The current hurricane season has been devastating, according to the leading global weather forecasting company, AccuWeather: storms have already claimed the lives of over 300 people and caused nearly $500 billion in damages. Previously, scientists warned that this year would experience an especially extreme storm season: it was predicted that the number of named storms would be so high that scientists would struggle to find enough names, as reported by Science Alert.
Fortunately for everyone, the hurricane season seems poised for a final surge of storms. Experts predict that in November, there will be between one and three tropical storms strong enough to receive names, with the first one potentially forming in just a week.
Researchers note that Florida and the Carolinas are the most vulnerable states. Local communities have yet to recover from Hurricanes Helen and Milton, but scientists believe the danger is not over—both states could face at least one more tropical impact.
According to hurricane expert Alex DaSilva, at the same time, the minimal risk of storms is anticipated for the western Gulf Coast—Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas.
Typically, the hurricane season ends on November 30, but scientists believe this year could be exceptional—there is a likelihood that another very rare December cyclone may strike the world. DaSilva states that such occurrences are uncommon, yet very warm sea surface temperatures could make the emergence of a cyclone in December possible.
Earlier, scientists announced that greenhouse gas emissions have reached a new record, which, as is well known, raises global temperatures both on land and in the ocean. Unfortunately, warm water and air only contribute to more intense storms.
Another factor, according to researchers, is weak wind shear—when the wind is weak, the likelihood of disrupting storm formation is significantly lower. At the same time, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not forecast hurricanes more than seven days in advance, which is why such data has not been available.
Back in August, NHC hurricane experts predicted that the current storm season in the Atlantic would likely produce between 17 and 24 named storms. Statistics indicate that the number has already reached 15.
AccuWeather researchers also report a "high risk" of storm formation in the first week of October. According to the NHC, the chance of a tropical depression forming over the next week is 40%.
Experts note that early signs of storm development include rain and thunderstorms observed today in the southern Caribbean Sea. At the same time, a high-pressure area forming to the north could create suitable conditions for a cyclone. All of this may lead to a tropical storm or even a hurricane as early as November.