The occupying forces have made significant gains over the past two months, capturing the largest area in the last two years of the war. However, their losses are so staggering that they cannot justify the successes achieved.
As noted by ISW analysts, Russia cannot sustain such losses indefinitely. We are talking about 80 thousand soldiers, around 200 tanks, and more than 650 armored vehicles. This is 20 thousand more than what the Americans lost during nearly 20 years of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In the last two months, Russian forces have intensified their offensive operations near Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region, as well as in Selydove, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar in the Donetsk region. They managed to capture Vuhledar and Selydove, but they have not yet achieved operationally significant successes, as their advances have mainly occurred across open fields and small populated areas.
"If the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not stop these offensive operations, Russian troops will eventually achieve operationally significant successes. However, Russian military cannot sustain such losses indefinitely, especially for limited victories. ISW previously provided data indicating that Russian troops have lost at least five divisions of armored vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk district alone since October 2023," experts say.
Russia's Issues with Manpower
The Institute for the Study of War noted that the occupiers have likely amassed a significant amount of equipment in priority areas along the front. However, the depletion of Soviet-era stockpiles and the current pace of production make this level of losses unsustainable in the long term.
Analysts have observed signs that the Kremlin is attempting to recruit enough soldiers to replace losses on the frontline. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself has acknowledged the ongoing labor shortage in his country and the dependence on migrants. Experts assert that the aggressor country relies on coercing migrants into joining the army to meet its workforce needs.
"Even forced mobilization of reservists will not solve the significant problem that Putin evidently faces: finding enough people to work in Russian industries while simultaneously holding the front," ISW concluded.
Dissatisfaction Among Military Bloggers with Russian Command
At the same time, Russian military bloggers continue to complain about disproportionately high personnel losses, especially within the ultra-nationalist blogging community. Experts believe this may impact Putin's calculations in the future.
A former instructor of the "Storm-Z" penal military units and war correspondent lamented that training assault troops takes at least six months. However, the command treats them as "cannon fodder," requiring no high level of training, whose primary task is to "catch drones and debris." He noted that the significant level of infantry losses is related to the tactic of sending small assault groups in waves in an attempt to suppress the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The blogger himself described this tactic as "misguided" and "poorly organized," acknowledging that under such conditions, the successes of the occupiers "do not appear proportional to the irretrievably expended resources—both human and material." Recent deaths of specialized drone operators, who were sent on assaults as punishment, have also drawn criticism.
"The continuous use of Russian servicemen, especially specialized troops, in unorganized, high-casualty, infantry 'meat' assaults, which yield disproportionately small successes, may continue to provoke outrage within the blogging community—a group that the Kremlin has shown to be particularly sensitive towards," ISW summarized.
War in Ukraine - Latest News
Russian occupying forces have been advancing on the front for some time now. The enemy is intensifying its pressure in areas where it manages to stretch the Ukrainian defense and create "claws," stated co-founder and analyst of the DeepState project, Ruslan Mikula.
Commander of the fire support company of the 5th Separate Assault Brigade, Nikolai Zinko, stated that the Russians are probing the Ukrainian defense in the Bakhmut direction.
The motivation for Russian infantry revolves around threats and intimidation, while Ukraine's motivation stems from an understanding of why we are fighting, explained Colonel of the National Guard of Ukraine, Artem Ilyukhin.